Causal effect estimation in networked systems is central to data-driven decision making. In such settings, interventions on one unit can spill over to others, and in complex physical or social systems, the interaction pathways driving these interference structures remain largely unobserved. We argue that for identifying population-level causal effects, it is not necessary to recover the exact network structure; instead, it suffices to characterize how those interactions contribute to the evolution of outcomes. Building on this principle, we study an evolution-based approach that investigates how outcomes change across observation rounds in response to interventions, hence compensating for missing network information. Using an exposure-mapping perspective, we give an axiomatic characterization of when the empirical distribution of outcomes follows a low-dimensional recursive equation, and identify minimal structural conditions under which such evolution mappings exist. We frame this as a distributional counterpart to difference-in-differences. Rather than assuming parallel paths for individual units, it exploits parallel evolution patterns across treatment scenarios to estimate counterfactual trajectories. A key insight is that treatment randomization plays a role beyond eliminating latent confounding; it induces an implicit sampling from hidden interference channels, enabling consistent learning about heterogeneous spillover effects. We highlight causal message passing as an instantiation of this method in dense networks while extending to more general interference structures, including influencer networks where a small set of units drives most spillovers. Finally, we discuss the limits of this approach, showing that strong temporal trends or endogenous interference can undermine identification.

Contextual bandits, which leverage the baseline features of sequentially arriving individuals to optimize cumulative rewards while balancing exploration and exploitation, are critical for online decision-making. Existing approaches typically assume no interference, where each individual's action affects only their own reward. Yet, such an assumption can be violated in many practical scenarios, and the oversight of interference can lead to short-sighted policies that focus solely on maximizing the immediate outcomes for individuals, which further results in suboptimal decisions and potentially increased regret over time. To address this significant gap, we introduce the foresighted online policy with interference (FRONT) that innovatively considers the long-term impact of the current decision on subsequent decisions and rewards. The proposed FRONT method employs a sequence of exploratory and exploitative strategies to manage the intricacies of interference, ensuring robust parameter inference and regret minimization. Theoretically, we establish a tail bound for the online estimator and derive the asymptotic distribution of the parameters of interest under suitable conditions on the interference network. We further show that FRONT attains sublinear regret under two distinct definitions, capturing both the immediate and consequential impacts of decisions, and we establish these results with and without statistical inference. The effectiveness of FRONT is further demonstrated through extensive simulations and a real-world application to urban hotel profits.

Modern AI models are increasingly being used as theoretical tools to study human cognition. One dominant approach is to evaluate whether human-derived measures are predicted by a model's output: that is, the end-product of a forward pass. However, recent advances in mechanistic interpretability have begun to reveal the internal processes that give rise to model outputs, raising the question of whether models might use human-like processing strategies. Here, we investigate the relationship between real-time processing in humans and layer-time dynamics of computation in Transformers, testing 20 open-source models in 6 domains. We first explore whether forward passes show mechanistic signatures of competitor interference, taking high-level inspiration from cognitive theories. We find that models indeed appear to initially favor a competing incorrect answer in the cases where we would expect decision conflict in humans. We then systematically test whether forward-pass dynamics predict signatures of processing in humans, above and beyond properties of the model's output probability distribution. We find that dynamic measures improve prediction of human processing measures relative to static final-layer measures. Moreover, across our experiments, larger models do not always show more human-like processing patterns. Our work suggests a new way of using AI models to study human cognition: not just as a black box mapping stimuli to responses, but potentially also as explicit processing models.

Visual Language Models (VLMs) have become foundational models for document understanding tasks, widely used in the processing of complex multimodal documents across domains such as finance, law, and academia. However, documents often contain noise-like information, such as watermarks, which inevitably leads us to inquire: \emph{Do watermarks degrade the performance of VLMs in document understanding?} To address this, we propose a novel evaluation framework to investigate the effect of visible watermarks on VLMs performance. We takes into account various factors, including different types of document data, the positions of watermarks within documents and variations in watermark content. Our experimental results reveal that VLMs performance can be significantly compromised by watermarks, with performance drop rates reaching up to 36\%. We discover that \emph{scattered} watermarks cause stronger interference than centralized ones, and that \emph{semantic contents} in watermarks creates greater disruption than simple visual occlusion. Through attention mechanism analysis and embedding similarity examination, we find that the performance drops are mainly attributed to that watermarks 1) force widespread attention redistribution, and 2) alter semantic representation in the embedding space. Our research not only highlights significant challenges in deploying VLMs for document understanding, but also provides insights towards developing robust inference mechanisms on watermarked documents.

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is widely applied in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and e-commerce to evaluate the efficacy of novel products or policies from offline datasets. This paper introduces a causal deepset framework that relaxes several key structural assumptions, primarily the mean-field assumption, prevalent in existing OPE methodologies that handle spatio-temporal interference. These traditional assumptions frequently prove inadequate in real-world settings, thereby restricting the capability of current OPE methods to effectively address complex interference effects. In response, we advocate for the implementation of the permutation invariance (PI) assumption. This innovative approach enables the data-driven, adaptive learning of the mean-field function, offering a more flexible estimation method beyond conventional averaging. Furthermore, we present novel algorithms that incorporate the PI assumption into OPE and thoroughly examine their theoretical foundations. Our numerical analyses demonstrate that this novel approach yields significantly more precise estimations than existing baseline algorithms, thereby substantially improving the practical applicability and effectiveness of OPE methodologies.

An end-to-end communications system based on Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) is modeled as an autoencoder (AE) for which the transmitter (coding and modulation) and receiver (demodulation and decoding) are represented as deep neural networks (DNNs) of the encoder and decoder, respectively. This AE communications approach is shown to outperform conventional communications in terms of bit error rate (BER) under practical scenarios regarding channel and interference effects as well as training data and embedded implementation constraints. A generative adversarial network (GAN) is trained to augment the training data when there is not enough training data available. Also, the performance is evaluated in terms of the DNN model quantization and the corresponding memory requirements for embedded implementation. Then, interference training and randomized smoothing are introduced to train the AE communications to operate under unknown and dynamic interference (jamming) effects on potentially multiple OFDM symbols. Relative to conventional communications, up to 36 dB interference suppression for a channel reuse of four can be achieved by the AE communications with interference training and randomized smoothing. AE communications is also extended to the multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) case and its BER performance gain with and without interference effects is demonstrated compared to conventional MIMO communications.

Categorization is a significant task in decision-making, which is a key part of human behavior. An interference effect is caused by categorization in some cases, which breaks the total probability principle. A negation quantum model (NQ model) is developed in this article to predict the interference. Taking the advantage of negation to bring more information in the distribution from a different perspective, the proposed model is a combination of the negation of a probability distribution and the quantum decision model. Information of the phase contained in quantum probability and the special calculation method to it can easily represented the interference effect. The results of the proposed NQ model is closely to the real experiment data and has less error than the existed models.

This paper provides the foundations of a unified cognitive decision-making framework (QulBIT) which is derived from quantum theory. The main advantage of this framework is that it can cater for paradoxical and irrational human decision making. Although quantum approaches for cognition have demonstrated advantages over classical probabilistic approaches and bounded rationality models, they still lack explanatory power. To address this, we introduce a novel explanatory analysis of the decision-maker's belief space. This is achieved by exploiting quantum interference effects as a way of both quantifying and explaining the decision-maker's uncertainty. We detail the main modules of the unified framework, the explanatory analysis method, and illustrate their application in situations violating the Sure Thing Principle.

Interference effects of tall buildings have attracted numerous studies due to the boom of clusters of tall buildings in megacities. To fully understand the interference effects of buildings, it often requires a substantial amount of wind tunnel tests. Limited wind tunnel tests that only cover part of interference scenarios are unable to fully reveal the interference effects. This study used machine learning techniques to resolve the conflicting requirement between limited wind tunnel tests that produce unreliable results and a completed investigation of the interference effects that is costly and time-consuming. Four machine learning models including decision tree, random forest, XGBoost, generative adversarial networks (GANs), were trained based on 30% of a dataset to predict both mean and fluctuating pressure coefficients on the principal building. The GANs model exhibited the best performance in predicting these pressure coefficients. A number of GANs models were then trained based on different portions of the dataset ranging from 10% to 90%. It was found that the GANs model based on 30% of the dataset is capable of predicting both mean and fluctuating pressure coefficients under unseen interference conditions accurately. By using this GANs model, 70% of the wind tunnel test cases can be saved, largely alleviating the cost of this kind of wind tunnel testing study.

High concentration agricultural facilities such as vertical farms or plant factories considers hydroponic techniques as optimal solutions. Although closed-system dramatically reduces water consumption and pollution issues, it has ion-ratio related problem. As the root absorbs individual ions with different rate, ion rate in a nutrient solution should be adjusted periodically. But traditional method only considers pH and electrical conductivity to adjust the nutrient solution. So ion imbalance and accumulation of excessive salts. To avoid those problems, some researchers have proposed ion-balancing methods which measure and control each ion concentration. However, those approaches do not overcome the innate limitations of ISEs, especially ion interference effect. An anion sensor is affected by other anions, and the error grows larger in higher concentration solution. A machine learning approach to modify ISE data distorted by ion interference effect is proposed in this paper. As measurement of TDS value is relatively robust than any other signals, we applied TDS as key parameter to build a readjustment function to remove the artifact. Once a readjustment model is established, application on ISE data can be done in real time. Readjusted data with proposed model showed about 91.6~98.3% accuracies. This method will enable the fields to apply recent methods in feasible status.